Poker Hands Probabilities

Poker Hands Probabilities

While our poker hand ranking page goes into each winning poker hand and discusses the odds of having them, the list below covers the odds and probabilities related to getting specific elements of your hand at certain points in gameplay.

Poker Hand Probabilities: Preflop

• Probability of being dealt a pocket pair: 5.9%
• Probability of being dealt suited cards: 23.5%
• Probability of being dealt AA(pocket rockets): .45%
• Probability of being dealt connecting cards 15.7%

 

Poker Hand Probabilities: The Flop

• Probability of hitting a three of a kind or quads at the flop when you hold a pocket pair 11.8%
• Probability you will make a pair at the flop, holding two unpaired cards in the hole 32.4%
• Probability of flopping a flush, holding two suited cards .84%
• Probability of flopping a flush draw, holding two suited cards 11%

 

Poker Hand Probabilities:  The Turn and The River

• Probability of hitting a flush draw (both turn/river, needing one card to hit) 35%
• Probability of hitting an open-ended straight draw (i.e. 4 straight cards, need one on either end to hit on turn or river) 31.5%
• Probability of hitting a gutshot draw (inside straight draw) on turn or river 16.5%
• Probability of hitting a backdoor flush, holding two suited cards 4.2%
• Probability of hitting a flush on the turn 19.1%
• Probability of hitting a flush on the river 19.6%
• Probability of hitting a straight on the turn 17%
• Probability of hitting a straight on the river 17.4%

 

Poker Probabilities: Hand against Hand

• Probability of a lower pocket pair beating a higher pocket pair 18.5%
• Probability of non-suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair 45%
• Probability of suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair 47.3%
• Probability of a dominated hand winning (e.g. AJ vs. AK) 24%
• Probability of a severely dominated hand winning that is suited (e.g. AA vs. ATs) 12.7%
• Probability of an unsuited severely dominated hand winning (e.g. AA vs. ATo) 7.2%
• Probability of two unsuited undercards beating two unsuited overcards (e.g. JT vs. AK) 36.7%
• Probability of two suited undercards beating two unsuited overcards (e.g. JTs vs. AK) 41%
• Probability of two, unsuited, non-connecting undercards beating two suited, connecting overcards (e.g. T4o vs. AKs) 32.4%